I'm in prep. There's a water bag keel down system to sewup.
Here's one analysis...

Weather arrived before the search began.
On 12/25/12 with a strong western front interacting with Gulf warmth/moisture over Alabama/Mississippi.

NOAA>
Today: Northeast winds near 5 knots...becoming east to southeast and increasing to near 10 knots this afternoon. Bay waters smooth... Becoming a light chop.

Tonight: Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters a light to moderate chop.

Wednesday: Southeast to south winds near 15 knots...becoming southwest in the afternoon. Bay waters a moderate chop. Isolated showers.

Wednesday Night: Southwest to west winds near 15 knots...shifting to north after midnight. Bay waters a moderate chop. Isolated showers.

Thursday: North winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters a light to moderate chop.

Thursday Night: North to northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters a light to moderate chop.

Friday: Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots...becoming east by noon. bay waters a light to moderate chop.

Friday Night: East winds 10 to 15 knots...becoming southeast after midnight. Bay waters a light to moderate chop.

Saturday: Southeast to south winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters a light to moderate chop.

Saturday Night: South winds 10 to 15 knots...shifting to northwest to north and increasing to 15 to 20 knots after midnight. Bay waters a light to moderate chop...becoming choppy. Isolated showers.

The Florida Bay forecast.
Also from
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/imagery/gmex.html
http://www.aviationweather.gov/adds/winds/

good for winter to spring ?

I enjoy the summer water if not the bugs. I tent INSIDE THE VAN.

Experience a near lightning spike rising from the water ?

The stats are available. I have several near land strikes over 25 years.